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(d) Decibanning a run on its own message and correct wheels.
If δ is to be evaluated from the evidence of the message under consideration only, then where x* is the double bulge on the correct wheels. This is a compact and convenient notion, though until the correct wheels are known, x* is unknown and must be estimated.
(e) Decibanning a run from its own wheel.
To simplify the calculation it is assumed
(i) that a sufficient approximation to the expected δ is that value of δ whose expected is the observed
.
(ii) that the distribution of x is normal. This is satisfactory if x << R, a condition satisfied except in key.
It will be convenient, though using the same notation as before, to interpret it more generally by taking Z to be the deviation of a typical double bulge from its mean, , so that the variance of Z will be
. Previously we took δ = 0.
Suppose that the wheel is constructed entirely from the run. Then the score, for a single character is
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W10 | |
and the expected score, x, for the whole wheel is | ||
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W11 | |
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which reduces to ![]() |
W12 | |
where ![]() |
W13 | |
remembering ![]() |
W14 | |
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W15 | |
and eliminating σ, δ from W13, W14, W15 | ||
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W16 | |
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W17 |
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